FOREX market review and forecast for next week (06/11/12 – 06/15/12) by Forex Cloud
Finally it has come true… The first bullish week in one and a half months. The EUR/USD pair tested the level 1.2300 and sharply rebounded, closing the week off a bit higher than 1.2500 (1.2513). Judging by the bullish activity, it is possible to expect the continuation of the growth of all currencies against the dollar for the next few days (if the picture isn’t ruined by the news from China). The ARS (Advanced Retail Sales, USA) percent will be published for the month of May on Wednesday, it is an important indicator. It is expected that it will be minus 0.2%. The originality of this situation is that any deviation from the expected value will be against the US dollar. If it is higher, it will push traders to buy risks. If it is lower, traders will start to get rid of dollars while expecting the QE3.
If we look at the technical picture (the EUR/USD 3h chart), then we see that the pair started the week with a bullish gap. If it isn’t closed in the near future, movement to 1.2700 is expected. To close this gap, the pair needs to go down to 1.2515.
The GBP/USD pair looks optimistic on the three hour chart. Having opening the week with a gap, the pair continues confidently growing, but I will suggest buying the pound only after it passes the 1.5600 mark.
The AUD/USD pair is at a strong level of resistance of 1.000 as seen on the three hour chart. By breaking this level, the way to 1.020 is opened, and from the rebound, the pair will lower to 0.980.
The USD/JPY pair won back its loses from the triangle last week and returned to the level of 79.50. This week, during Thursday night and Friday morning the Bank of Japan will make its decision on the interest rate. No one doubts that the rate will stay at 0.01%. The intrigue consists in the probability of the announcement of a new currency intervention which we all await. The pair can grow to 80.00, but if there is no intervention and no hints about it, then the pair will most likely go down to the level of 78.00.
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