FOREX market review and forecast for next week (06/25/12 – 06/29/12) by Forex Cloud
The last week has every chance to become the “fashion-maker” for the whole summer. Probably because the last five business days finally decided on the characteristic of the current state of the market. And though the term “a double bottom” didn’t sound yet, but only because anybodies are afraid to say it, but the facts push things to be said as they are… And how else can we name a situation, when there is disorder and decline in Europe, instead of the expected “in a half a year after the USA” raise, China, along with the rest of Asia, is “giving in”, and finally, in the USA, once again there is another descent, as the last data of the American economy shows (and this is before the elections!). According to me, it is clear to everyone and the only thing, keeping the market from collapsing in panic, is the fear of the collapse.
Why did I start making such apocalyptic statements? But what other options do I have, when the market, for over a month, keeps threatening that Greece will leave the European Union as a result of the radical anti-bailout parties coming to power, and when this doesn't happen, and the pro-bailout ruling coalition wins the election, this news leads to a small flame which is “extinguished” right away by the large players, and the dollar continues to grow. Furthermore, everyone is looking forward to the QE3 announcements, and here, it is almost here (or how else can we interpret the last speech of M. Bernanke). And what? After the short sag, the dollar continues its growth in all pairs and the week finished off in minuses, despite these two very positive and important events. How else can we interpret these “mysterious” signs? According to me, everything tells that a “second bottom” is expected, and that means that we can await the EUR/USD pair to be on the level of 1.2000 in the near future. The rise to 1.3000, is apparently cancelled.
Of course, there always exists the probability that everything that we see, is a very “conspiritated” game of “puppeteers” before the “era of prosperity”. And still some may have hope of the arrival of a Hero (that will correct everything) or the arrival of aliens (then the markets will rise of anticipation of the development of the economy using alien technologies). All these options cannot be dismissed, so placing stops wouldn’t hurt…
Let’s look at the technical picture. The EUR/USD pair broke through the bottom boreder of the channel and in the near future it is possible to wait for it on 1.2500, where there might be some resistance, the next resistance level will be 1.2450.
We see a simil picture on the three-hour chard of the pair GBP/USD. The first level of resistance can be expected at 1.5500, and the second at 1.5400.
The pairs AUD/USD and NZD/USD are also aimed downwards.
Probably the USD/JPY pair fixed itself higher than the 80.00 level and the next goal will be 81.00, even though some correction is expected.
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