How much is the market expected to move?
The market is currently pricing S&P 500 moves of about 1.178% per day. Over the next month that is roughly ±5.36% either way, about two-thirds of the time.
Options are priced around their historical middle.
This is what the options market expects — not a forecast of direction, and not a suggestion to trade options.
Index Volatility
normalReal implied volatility for the S&P 500 index complex — the only place a keyless implied-vol source exists. Single-name options stay on a clearly-labelled realized-vol proxy.
Implied vol (VIX)18.7≈ 1.178% per day (rule of 16)
percentile 56.2 of all history · IV rank (1y) 29.7
Term structurecontangoNear-term vol is priced below 3-month vol — the normal, calm shape.
front 18.7 / back 20.6 · ratio 0.908
Implied vs realized+8.8 ptsimplied 18.7 vs realized 9.9
ratio 1.889 · spread percentile 88.3
Expected move (30d)±5.36%±397.37 from 7411.98
~68% of the time the index stays inside this band over 30 days, if the market's own vol pricing is right.
What the evidence says about selling vs buying options
For selling premium: Implied vol has exceeded subsequent realized vol in 20 of 21 years (1998-2018, avg implied/realized ~129%); Cboe's PUT writing index earned a higher Sharpe than the S&P 500 (0.64 vs 0.45) with lower volatility.
Against — the tail risk: That premium is payment for crash risk, not free money: the PUT index carries far worse tails (skew -2.10 vs -0.81; kurtosis 9.72 vs 2.53), and option-writing UNDERPERFORMED the index through the 2010-2018 low-vol bull. Losses concentrate in sudden large moves.
On buying protection: Long-vol/protective structures pay off in crashes but bleed otherwise: continuously buying 5% OTM SPX puts (1996-2016) cut returns from 5.1% to 1.8% and Sharpe from 0.32 to 0.14.
Basis: implied (VIX, 30d forward-looking) vs realized (trailing 21d of S&P 500). Trailing realized is an observable proxy — the true VRP needs the NEXT 30 days, which is unknowable today.
Skew: not shown — 25-delta put/call skew needs an option chain. Cboe's delayed chain JSON explicitly prohibits automated extraction, and FRED carries no SKEW series — so skew is omitted rather than approximated.
CBOE VIX close (VIXCLS, FRED gateway, daily since 1990)
VIX (VIXCLS) vs VIX3M (VXVCLS), FRED gateway
VIX (VIXCLS) vs 21d realized vol of S&P 500 (SP500), both FRED gateway
S&P 500 close (SP500) x VIX implied vol
Educational volatility analytics for the index complex. Not a trade signal, not a recommendation to sell or buy options.
← Back homeFuturesBuilding evidence6 gates missing: exact contract roll history · exact contract expiries… OptionsBuilding evidence11 gates missing: bid ask · open interest volume…
Futures & options ideas
Futures and options are advanced tools. These idea cards show what the agents see — tap one to learn more before you ever consider trading it.
Research comes before a trade
The agents now check strategy history, costs, data quality, holdout tests, and paper results. If those checks are missing, the idea stays research-only instead of becoming a Buy or Sell signal.
No derivatives setup has passed every evidence gate yet. The agents will keep monitoring.
Futures & options
← Back homePlain-language ideas — switch to Pro for curves, Greeks & the vol surface
Futures & optionsAdvanced markets, explained simply
Futures and options are powerful but advanced. Here’s what the agents see in plain words — always learn how one works before you ever consider trading it.
Futures evidence: Building evidenceTrend + curve carry · validation gate
Research only. CL systematic research: bullish multi-horizon trend; curve carry unavailable. Evidence status insufficient_data. Still needed: exact contract roll history, exact contract expiries, estimated costs.
Options evidence: Building evidenceVolatility risk premium · full-chain gate
Research only. GC_OPTIONS options research: IV-realized spread -0.058 (cheap); evidence status insufficient_data. Still needed: bid ask, open interest volume, rates.
No futures or options ideas from the agents right now — check back after the next run.
Want the futures curve, open interest, implied vol and Greeks? Switch to Pro in the top bar for the full desk.
AI analysis to study, not orders to follow. You always decide.
Derivatives Intelligence
Futures and Options Agents
Deterministic futures curve, open-interest, implied-volatility, skew, Greeks, and strategy-family analytics. Scenario guidance only — not guaranteed signals.
Futures agents12
Options agents8
Strategies1
6 gates missing: exact contract roll history · exact contract expiries…
11 gates missing: bid ask · open interest volume…
Futures consensus is mixed with 0.5 agreement.
CLQ26/CLU26: -4.4 · CLU26/CLV26: 4.16
GCQ26/GCV26: -28.1 · GCV26/GCZ26: -30.8
Bullish upside idea: pay premium for call exposure when the agent expects the underlying to rise and IV is not too expensive. Evidence: Building evidence; research only.
Evidence gate
Building evidenceCrude futures research
Multi-horizon trend + curve carry
Sourceyahoo continuous research
History800 daily bars
ActionableNo
Multi-horizon trendbullish
Blend 20/60/120-day direction, then size by volatility and portfolio concentration limits.
Curve carryunavailable
Use annualized contract carry with exact expiries; raw contango/backwardation alone is not a trade rule.
Missing evidence
exact contract roll history · exact contract expiries · estimated costs · independent holdout · forward paper · net expectancy after costs
Risk vetoes
vendor continuous roll unknown
Evidence gate
Building evidenceGold futures research
Multi-horizon trend + curve carry
Sourceyahoo continuous research
History800 daily bars
ActionableNo
Multi-horizon trendbearish
Blend 20/60/120-day direction, then size by volatility and portfolio concentration limits.
Curve carryunavailable
Use annualized contract carry with exact expiries; raw contango/backwardation alone is not a trade rule.
Missing evidence
exact contract roll history · exact contract expiries · estimated costs · independent holdout · forward paper · net expectancy after costs
Risk vetoes
vendor continuous roll unknown
Evidence gate
Building evidenceOptions evidence lab
VRP + covered/collateralized benchmarks
Sourceyahoo options:GLD proxy + GVZCLS iv-history
History15 chain days
ActionableNo
Defined-risk volatility risk premiuminactive
Only harvest rich implied volatility with capped loss, executable quotes, costs, event controls, and tail stress.
Covered call benchmarkbenchmark
Premium cushions some downside but caps upside; compare with the Cboe BXM methodology.
Cash-secured put benchmarkbenchmark
Premium income accepts equity-like crash drawdown and requires full collateral; compare with Cboe PUT.
Long volatilityconsider_debit_structure
Long premium only when the realized/event forecast can exceed executable implied volatility plus spread and decay.
Missing evidence
bid ask · open interest volume · rates · dividends or forward · exercise settlement · estimated costs · event calendar · full chain history 5y · independent holdout · forward paper · net expectancy after costs
Risk vetoes
proxy underlying
Positioning
Futures positioning — CFTC COT
MarketNet speculativeWeekly changeCOT idx (3y)OI change w/w
ES (E-MINI S&P 500)-322,865 contracts+42,13759-2,007
NQ (NASDAQ MINI)-74,690 contracts-10,5270+1,932
GC (GOLD)+124,831 contracts+4,05262-321
CL (WTI-PHYSICAL)+63,979 contracts+2,00530-11,009
Net speculative futures positioning, updated weekly (Friday for Tuesday data). COT index: 0 = most short of the last ~3y, 100 = most long. Extremes flag crowding — they do not time reversals.
Index futures use TFF leveraged funds; commodities use Disaggregated managed money.
Historical Context
Yahoo Finance · dailyFive-Year Daily Market History
Descriptive context only. Continuous futures can contain roll effects, and GLD is an ETF proxy for gold-options exposure—not options-chain history. These snapshots do not qualify futures or options evidence gates.
Crude oil continuous futures
1257 daily observations · 2021-07-26T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z
Total return+24.20%
Annualized volatility+40.75%
Max drawdown-55.32%
20 day+24.18% · Uptrend
60 day-10.63% · Downtrend
120 day+36.96% · Uptrend
Gold continuous futures
1257 daily observations · 2021-07-26T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z
Total return+126.14%
Annualized volatility+18.66%
Max drawdown-25.06%
20 day+0.92% · Uptrend
60 day-11.41% · Downtrend
120 day-13.71% · Downtrend
GLD ETF (gold-options proxy)
1255 daily observations · 2021-07-26T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z
Total return+121.16%
Annualized volatility+18.46%
Max drawdown-26.40%
20 day+0.66% · Uptrend
60 day-11.85% · Downtrend
120 day-16.42% · Downtrend
Institutional analytics
Research analytics, non-executing by design
Derivatives views add futures curve and options volatility diagnostics as measured data becomes available.
Portfolio risk
Exposure, leverage, concentration, and drawdown analytics are built on versioned market data. Values appear only when they trace to a trusted dataset — nothing is estimated for display.
Factors and scenarios
Factor exposures and stress scenarios are computed only where a measured data source exists, and every shock definition is stated explicitly.
Execution quality
Spread, slippage, and other cost analytics stay educational until measured cost evidence passes deterministic checks.
Every displayed value must trace to a versioned market-data source. Sizing and setup content stays educational and non-executing; this platform never places trades.
Futures Layer
CL / GCCurve + Direction + Flow Agents
Futures curve
Mixed curveCL
CLQ2684.91
CLU2689.31
CLV2685.15
CLQ26/CLU26: -4.4 · CLU26/CLV26: 4.16
Futures curve
ContangoGC
GCQ264,070.8
GCV264,098.9
GCZ264,129.7
GCQ26/GCV26: -28.1 · GCV26/GCZ26: -30.8
CL roll economics
CLQ26 → CLU26 · curve is contango
Roll yield (annualized)-61.01%
Curve shapecontango
First noticeNo date sourced
GC roll economics
GCQ26 → GCV26 · curve is contango
Roll yield (annualized)-4.13%
Curve shapecontango
First noticeNo date sourced
AgentBiasConfidenceScoreSummary
futures curvemixed55%5.5
CL curve is mixed with M1-M2 spread -4.4.
futures directionalbullish85%8.5
CL directional model is bullish: regression slope 1.586%/bar (R² 0.90) with 7.31% five-bar momentum. Plan: stop 80.8441, target 104.125, typical hold ~11 trading days (window 4-11), time-stop 40.
futures event supplymixed81%8.1
Event/supply risk score is 0.72.
futures flow oibearish58%5.8
Open interest flow shows long_liquidation.
futures meta consensusmixed35%3.5
Futures consensus is mixed with 0.5 agreement.
futures positioningneutral50%5
Speculative net positioning +2,005 w/w (COT idx 30, report 2026-07-21). Crowding flags squeeze risk — it does not time reversals.
futures curvecurve bearish90%9
GC curve is contango with M1-M2 spread -28.0999.
futures directionalbearish55%5.5
GC directional model is bearish: regression slope -0.034%/bar (R² 0.02) with 1.51% five-bar momentum. Plan: stop 4227.06, target 3797.34, typical hold ~40 trading days (window 5-40), time-stop 40.
futures event supplyneutral62%6.2
Event/supply risk score is 0.35.
futures flow oimixed48%4.8
Open interest flow shows short_covering.
futures meta consensusbearish16%1.6
Futures consensus is bearish with 0.25 agreement.
futures positioningneutral50%5
Speculative net positioning +4,052 w/w (COT idx 62, report 2026-07-21). Crowding flags squeeze risk — it does not time reversals.
Options Layer
GC_OPTIONSVol Surface Snapshot
IV rank—
IV percentile—
Front ATM IV21.9%
Back ATM IV22.8%
Skew score0.02
Options Agents
DailyIV, Skew, Term, Greeks, Strategy
AgentBiasConfidenceScoreSummary
options greeks riskneutral66%6.6
Greeks risk scan completed with deterministic threshold checks.
options implied volvol expansion74%7.4
IV is cheap versus realized volatility; expected move is 3.03%.
options meta consensusneutral34%3.4
Options consensus is neutral with 0.5 agreement.
options skew smileneutral60%6
Options skew is balanced.
options strategy recommenderbullish72%7.2
long call selected for bullish underlying bias, cheap implied volatility, balanced skew, and balanced term structure. Research only: evidence status insufficient_data.
options systematic researchvol expansion46%4.6
GC_OPTIONS options research: IV-realized spread -0.058 (cheap); evidence status insufficient_data.
options underlying contextbullish70%7
Underlying context is bullish.
options vol termneutral68%6.8
Vol term structure is balanced.
Scenario Guidance
Latest setupCurrent Options Playbook
This is the options strategy recommender. It turns the current gold-options read — direction, IV regime, skew, term structure, and Greeks risk — into a plain-English strategy family. It is not a historical log.
GC options · 1DLong Call
Bullish upside idea: pay premium for call exposure when the agent expects the underlying to rise and IV is not too expensive.
Evidence: Building evidence · research onlyCurrent read: long call selected for bullish underlying bias, cheap implied volatility, balanced skew, and balanced term structure.Inputs: direction bullish · IV cheap · skew balanced · term balancedRisk: Scenario guidance only; confirm strikes, liquidity, spread width, and event risk before any trade.Invalidation: Invalidate if direction flips, IV regime changes, skew reprices, or term structure no longer supports the setup.Expiry: 45-60Profit-take: Scale out at +50% to +100% of the premium paid, or at the underlying's 3.5x-ATR target.Stop: Exit if the underlying bias flips bearish or the option loses half the premium paid.Timing: Exit or roll once 21 days to expiry remain — theta decay accelerates from there, so profit must come in the first half of the hold.Sources: spot yahoo daily · IV yahoo options:GLD (gold ETF proxy) + GVZCLS iv-history72% model score